This
study examines the trajectory of retail petrol and diesel prices in India over
a 15‑year period (April 2011 – March 2026) against the backdrop of
deregulation, global crude oil volatility, and fiscal policy shifts. Using
secondary data from the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), Indian
Oil Corporation, Reserve Bank of India, and Ministry of Finance, the paper
decomposes the price buildup, quantifies the tax component, and analyses the
relationship between domestic retail prices, international crude prices (Brent),
and the INR/USD exchange rate. Time-series trend analysis, correlation, and a
multivariate regression model are employed. Results indicate that while
deregulation improved the pass‑through of crude price changes, the central and
state tax burden became the dominant price determinant, especially between 2014
and 2021. The COVID‑19 pandemic and the Russia‑Ukraine conflict led to
unprecedented price spikes and subsequent policy interventions, including
excise cuts and a windfall tax. Retail fuel prices significantly impacted the
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and transportation costs, with a lagged effect on
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. The study concludes with policy
recommendations for a more transparent and stable fuel pricing mechanism.
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