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International Journal of
Finance and Commerce
ARCHIVES
VOL. 8, ISSUE 3 (2026)
Trends, determinants, and economic impact of petrol and diesel prices in India: A 15-year analysis (2011–2026)
Authors
Dr. Dean Martin C
Abstract

This study examines the trajectory of retail petrol and diesel prices in India over a 15‑year period (April 2011 – March 2026) against the backdrop of deregulation, global crude oil volatility, and fiscal policy shifts. Using secondary data from the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), Indian Oil Corporation, Reserve Bank of India, and Ministry of Finance, the paper decomposes the price buildup, quantifies the tax component, and analyses the relationship between domestic retail prices, international crude prices (Brent), and the INR/USD exchange rate. Time-series trend analysis, correlation, and a multivariate regression model are employed. Results indicate that while deregulation improved the pass‑through of crude price changes, the central and state tax burden became the dominant price determinant, especially between 2014 and 2021. The COVID‑19 pandemic and the Russia‑Ukraine conflict led to unprecedented price spikes and subsequent policy interventions, including excise cuts and a windfall tax. Retail fuel prices significantly impacted the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and transportation costs, with a lagged effect on Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. The study concludes with policy recommendations for a more transparent and stable fuel pricing mechanism.

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Pages:70-76
How to cite this article:
Dr. Dean Martin C "Trends, determinants, and economic impact of petrol and diesel prices in India: A 15-year analysis (2011–2026)". International Journal of Finance and Commerce, Vol 8, Issue 3, 2026, Pages 70-76

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